Saturday, July 24, 2010

Median Sales Price and Supply & Demand through June 2010

There has been talk in the media about a "double-dip" recession recently but housing market numbers are not showing any indication of this in Fairfax County, at least.

Prices have continued to rise and are approaching 2007 median prices, which is quite surprising. My guess is that this increase in price is the final effect of the tax credit - buyers were supposed to be under contract by 4/30 and close by 6/30 (Congress extended this to 9/30) and some of those contracts seemed to be artificially high in desperation of making the deadline. I wouldn't be surprised if we start seeing a slight dip in prices during the next quarter, correcting for this artificial jump during the past few months.



The supply has been rising but demand seems to be rising at nearly the same rate so once again, we are not seeing indications of a slowing housing market in Fairfax County.



Days on market has not changed much since the end of March - it is still in the low 40s. And net sold price as a percent of list price is holding at about the same level - 97.3% as of the end of June 2010.

There continue to be rumors of a second wave of foreclosures based on the five year arms from 2005 and 2006 purchases starting to adjust. Maybe so... maybe not... with interest rates continuing to hold at incredibly low levels, maybe those adjustments will not affect homeowners as badly as expected.

The housing market seems healthy for sellers and buyers right now. Hopefully interest rates hold through the end of the year, as the media has indicated.